Executive Summary
Hurricane Helene reached North Carolina on Friday, September 27, bringing historic rainfall and resulting floods and landslides, strong winds, and tornadoes generated by the storm. To date, Helene is the third-deadliest US storm in the 21st century, with nearly 100 confirmed deaths in North Carolina alone and dozens more still missing. Thirty-nine counties have been designated by FEMA for federal disaster assistance. An estimated 4.6 million people – more than 40% of the state’s population – live in one of the designated counties. The region accounts for 45% of the state’s GDP.
Hurricane Helene has left significant, long-term impacts on western North Carolina. In addition to the devastating loss of life, the storm destroyed thousands of homes and damaged tens of thousands more. Millions of North Carolinians lost access to critical services like water and sewer, electricity, telecommunications, and healthcare facilities – services that for some communities remain unavailable. Thousands of miles of roads and bridges were damaged, cutting communities off and limiting egress for residents and entrance by essential response and recovery teams. The region’s economy has suffered a severe blow, threatening livelihoods and the long-term viability of communities.
Preliminary estimates of damage and needs approach $53.6 billion across the state, including $41.1 billion of direct damages, $7.6 billion of indirect or induced damages, and $4.8 billion of potential investments for strengthening and mitigation. Five categories drive more than 90% of estimated direct and indirect damage: Economy, Housing, Utilities and Natural Resources, Transportation, and Agriculture. The damage attributable to Helene is roughly three times the $16.7 billion impact of Hurricane Florence in 2018.
While these numbers will continue to be refined, early action – in addition to the $273M already appropriated – will be critical to the long-term well-being of affected communities. Recent research investigating nearly 3,000 county-level recoveries from large disasters found that two of the keys to successful recoveries are (1) quickly mobilizing significant, flexible capital and (2) proactively investing in local capacity and expertise to support post-disaster efforts.
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OVERALL ESTIMATED COST:
Here's the letter from Gov Roy cooper to the office of state budget and management:
"Preliminary estimates of damage and needs approach $53.6 billion across the state, including $41.1 billion of direct damages, $7.6 billion of indirect or induced damages, and $4.8 billion of potential investments for strengthening and mitigation. Five categories drive more than 90% of estimated direct and indirect damage: Economy, Housing, Utilities and Natural Resources, Transportation, and Agriculture. "
"The preliminary need for housing assistance and recovery is estimated to be $14.8 billion. The total estimate includes $12.2 billion due to residential structure damage but will change as FEMA conducts further on-the-ground assessments.
An estimated 220,000 households will apply for individual assistance.
Approximately 126,000 homes are expected to be damaged. Single-family homes, manufactured homes, and duplexes account for the majority of affected residential structures.
Displaced residents will need transitional and short-term housing, personal property replacement, and other assistance.
Public buildings, such as public housing authorities and other government programs related to housing, may have also suffered damages greater than local capacity can quickly cover.
The direct damage and needs include:
$12.2 billion in residential damages;
$3 million in transitional sheltering;
$101 million in public assistance;
$600 million in other assistance for households;
$1.8 billion in resilience efforts during recovery. "
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LANDSLIDES:
2,004 landslides as of 12/1/2024
Maps of each one documented here:
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MISSING PERSONS:
Currently 425 missing, 171 verified deceased from this specific list.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Pp41yMpPeMvZShN11xXAZdB3-6wu_cZyAB-QxgUoeEw/edit?usp=sharing
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RAILROAD:
"According to recent reports, Norfolk Southern experienced significant railroad damage in the area around Spruce Pine, North Carolina, with estimates including over 21,500 feet of washed-out track, more than 50,000 feet of track damaged by scour, and multiple damaged bridges; the total cost of repairs is likely to be substantial."
Lost economic output due to a nationwide rail shutdown could be more than $2 billion every day. Economic damage from a railroad shutdown could include:
Retail product shortages
Lost jobs
Widespread plant shutdowns
Higher costs for consumers and businesses
More trucks on the highway and more CO2 in the air
Disruptions to hundreds of thousands of daily commuter and Amtrak trips"
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ROADS & BRIDGES:
""NCDOT has identified more than 6,900 sites where roads and bridges are damaged. The agency reported Monday there are nearly 600 road closures, with 100 of those on interstates, and state and federal highways. The agency is reporting closures on thoroughfares including Interstate 40, U.S. 64, U.S. 19, N.C. 215, N.C. 226 and N.C. 197. The number of road closures could rise as the state agency continues its assessment, Hopkins said. "
https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2024/2024-10-14-ncdot-hurricane-helene-recovery.aspx
"The initial estimate of damage to municipal roads and bridges is $1.725 billion, with bridges accounting for about a quarter of that. North Carolina is seeking 90% reimbursement for repairs. "
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AGRICULTURE & AQUACULTURE:
Crop Losses:
The Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (DACS) partnered with NC State
University Extension economists and OSBM to derive a preliminary estimate of crop losses
caused by Hurricane Helene across 37 western disaster-declared counties that experienced the
most extreme rainfall and flooding. Two counties, Lee and Nash, were excluded from the
analysis. These counties suffered localized tornado damage, but initial reports suggest these
counties did not experience significant crop losses from hurricane damage.
The analysis first employed geospatial analysis to identify agricultural land affected by three
types of storm impacts – extreme rainfall, heavy rainfall, and proximity to landslides.
Regional agronomists provided provisional estimates of crop losses by county based on initial
observations. These loss percentages were applied to crop acreage within the designated
rainfall zones, with farmland near landslides assumed to have 100% loss. Additionally, the
analysis accounted for multi-year losses, particularly for nurseries and tree crops, which
require longer recovery times. The economic impact of these production losses was then
calculated using the IMPLAN model based on the preliminary lost production estimates.
The initial estimate of direct production losses to the farm sector is close to $1.4 billion. This
figure accounts for multiple years of production lost in sectors like nurseries, sod, Christmas
trees, and apples. In some areas, even annual crops like vegetables will likely lose
unharvested production from 2024 and may also lose production in 2025 due to damaged
fields. These preliminary estimates will continue to be refined as conditions allow on-ground
assessments to be completed.
When farm revenues are lost there is a ripple effect through the regional economy, through
lost jobs, lost activity in agriculture support industries, and those that rely on farm products.
The total estimated economic impact from these crop losses is $2.6 billion.
The direct production losses and economic impact estimates below do not include the costs
and disruption from damaged infrastructure and equipment. It also does not include
remediation and recovery costs that may be needed to restore farmland and pasture from the
effects of landslides, extreme erosion, sediment deposits, and stream redirection.
Note that while this analysis includes Cherokee, Graham, Jackson, Haywood, and Swain
counties, these loss estimates largely exclude agricultural production on tribal lands in the
Qualla Boundary, as the Cherokee Nation is not required to report to the USDA.
Aquaculture: Trout Farm Operations
Preliminary estimates provided by aquaculture producers in the region currently estimate
mortality losses and structural damage combined to be $9 million. This estimate is derived
solely from initial producer reports and no site visits have been conducted at this time.
Stream Debris Removal and Stabilization
The scale of impact from Helene around the needs of stream debris removal, streambank
stabilization, erosion control measures, and stream restoration is unprecedented. Preliminary
estimates for these needs amount to a total need of $431 million. These estimates are based
on experience from past storms, the greater intensity and severity of damage to waterways,
farmland, conservation structures due to the region’s topography, and initial indications from
federal agencies.
Agricultural Infrastructure and Land Restoration
Hurricane Helene also caused significant damage to agricultural infrastructure, croplands, and
pastures totaling $126 million in total need:
Cropland and pasture restoration, agricultural pond repair: $56 million is the
preliminary estimate of funds needed to restore cropland and pastures and to repair
damaged agricultural ponds for irrigation and water management. These estimates
are based on land and pond repair costs during Hurricane Florence and the extent of
the damage in western North Carolina. The USDA-Emergency Conservation
Program caps funding for pond repairs at $200 thousand, but repairs averaged more
than double that cost during Florence.
Conservation structure repair and renovation – $15 million is the preliminary
estimate of funds needed for best management practice repair and renovation.
Examples of affected conservation structures include grass waterways and dairy
waste storage pond repair.
Farm access road repair – $20 million is the preliminary need estimate to repair
existing access roads used for agricultural operations, including roads to existing
crop fields, pastures, and barns. Many more road miles need significant repair
compared to past storms, due to the topography of western North Carolina and the
severe erosion and structural damage caused by this storm.
Engineering and technical assistance support – The scale and severity of the storm
damage will result in significant repair work. Additional engineers and contracts are
needed to provide design and project implementation oversight. The estimated need
is $35 million.
Wildfire Risk and Response
It is likely that western North Carolina will experience more intense fire seasons – both in
scale and severity – due to the downed timber and debris accumulation caused by Hurricane
Helene. Timber and debris are ignitable fuels on the forest floor that increase wildfire risk.
The need estimate of $19 million is composed of additional NC Forest Service overtime,
contract work, and equipment repairs. The expected resources and staff time required for
larger scale fires are based on previous actual expenditures during past severe fire seasons.
Strengthening and Mitigation
Significant investments are needed to promote sustainable agricultural practices, land use
changes, and farmer supports that are responsive to the unique threats farmers face from
increased rainfall, droughts, and more frequent extreme weather events. This analysis
conservatively assumes 15% of direct production losses ($209 million) represents a
meaningful first step toward resilient farm systems that protect natural resources and build
stronger communities.
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UTILITIES ESTIMATES:
Electricity Providers:
NC electrical cooperatives, community-owned electric
systems membership organizations, and the largest private electric providers in
western NC provided OSBM with preliminary damage assessments, which amount
to about $1.4 billion. This estimate does not include the costs of the total
transmission and distribution infrastructure rebuild required to restore power to the
remaining 1,000 homes and business that are in the process of being restored, or to
replace temporary repairs done to quickly restore power to customers with
permanent infrastructure. As one example, a substation on Swannanoa River Road
powering customers in Biltmore Village was decimated by debris and will have to
be rebuilt over the next three to four months. Duke Energy is installing a critical, but
temporary, substation to power nearly 7,000 customers in the area. These types of
necessary temporary patches are expensive, and ubiquitous, across a storm-impacted
region where 900,000 homes and businesses suffered power outages. Estimates will
be refined as providers continue to conduct assessments, reach cutoff areas, and
restore power.
Gas:
Information was provided to OSBM by major gas providers in western NC as
well as a propane industry trade association with a presence in North Carolina,
South Carolina, and Georgia. These contributors provided preliminary estimates
amounting to $41 million, due to damage to gas transport systems and significant
losses of propane tank inventory as a result of flooding.
Water & Sewage:
DEQ’s Division of Water Resources and DEM have compiled
operational status data directly from water system owners, together with benchmark
costs for repair or replacement of these systems. A total of 163 water and sewer
systems were damaged as well as hundreds of miles of distribution pipes. In total, 88
wastewater systems and 75 drinking water systems were impacted. In Mitchell
County towns have systems that were so devastated by Helene that some systems
will require total replacement. In the disaster region, 70% of the population uses
septic which is higher than the statewide average of 50%. DEQ estimates 30,000
septic systems will need to be repaired or replaced, at a cost of $500 million. Many
households currently on septic systems may not be able to replace the system and
will need to be connected to sewer systems or alternative waste systems.
Stormwater:
No stormwater damage estimates are currently available. DEQ and the
UNC Environmental Finance Center estimate local government units across the state
have $250 million dollars in unfunded stormwater needs. DEQ anticipates this
unmet need for existing stormwater systems will be exacerbated by Hurricane
Helene.
Hazardous Waste: Average costs of soil and groundwater remediation vary by
incident size, scope, and location. Using existing GIS resources, DEQ identified up
to 400 facilities in a 500-year floodplain that likely experienced moderate to
significant flood damage including underground storage tanks, oil pollution,
hazardous waste and abandoned containers. DEQ has arrived at a preliminary
damage estimate of $22 million for Underground Storage Tanks.
Waste Management:
There are 162 landfills in the impacted region and DEQ has
found that 16 recycling centers are damaged. The Buncombe Transfer Station is
closed due to storm damage to its monitoring wells, perimeter access road, and
property damage at their closed landfill. To estimate the need for storage of waste,
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DEQ calculated the per-acreage cost of storage as $800,000/.65 acres. DEQ
estimates that 5.75 million cubic yards of curbside material will need to be recycled
or disposed in landfills. Each five-acre landfill footprint could hold 288,000 cubic
yards of compacted waste. To dispose of all this material, they estimate a total of
thirteen five-acre landfill cells will be needed to handle the increased volume of
waste from Helene. DEQ’s Division of Waste Management has not had an
opportunity to verify and categorize reported underground storage tank incidents.
Telecom and Internet:
In partnership with DIT, OSBM requested damage
assessment information from over 70 major telecommunication and internet
providers servicing the 39 disaster declared counties. Access roads incurred
significant damage due to the storm, rendering many impassable and making
assessments of losses premature for the majority of providers. Thus, only 14
businesses responded with damage estimates, and only nine of them were able to
provide data at this early stage. Those that could provide data reported $71 million
in damage. OSBM summed these direct damage reports with cell site transport
repair estimates calculated by leveraging benchmarks provided by DIT. This
estimate assigned a repair cost associated with an average length of a damaged cable
segment for a particular outage duration window. This cost was then multiplied by
the number of NC-based, post-storm transport outages repaired by Day 1, Day 5,
and Day 11, as reported by the Federal Communications Commission. As providers
complete their assessments, more accurate data will become available on damages to
telecommunication and internet infrastructure. Estimates provided in this section
will be refined based on that data.
Natural Resources:
From leaf-peeping to trout fishing to hiking, tourism and
outdoor recreation are vital components of the western NC economy. According to
Visit NC’s 2023 Visitor Spending Report for the western and northwestern
prosperity zones, which include the most critically impacted counties, visitors spend
more than $7.5 billion and tourism accounts for over 50,000 jobs in these regions.
Western tourism and outdoor recreation are dependent on the abundance of
conserved land and unspoiled natural resources. Approximately 19.6% of land area
in declared counties is state and federal natural areas, parks, and forests, a
conservative estimate that excludes locally protected lands and privately held
easements. In addition to their importance to the local economy, protected lands are
also important to resiliency as they help to mitigate flooding, reduce erosion, and
enhance resilience.
OSBM has received requests from both state agencies and local governments for
funds to repair and rebuild local park facilities and greenway systems and to restore
and protect wetlands, streams, riparian buffers and natural habitat areas damaged by
the storm. A complete assessment of the scale and complexity of repairing these
assets is still unknown across disaster-impacted counties.
Resiliency Efforts:
The recovery investments afford an opportune time to efficiently
introduce building, infrastructure, and technology upgrades that will ensure that
future storms do not cause the same level of destruction, better safeguarding both
public safety and economic stability. Three categories of resiliency efforts have been
identified: Water Infrastructure Resiliency & Interconnections Fund ($500 million),
Stormwater Systems Resiliency ($60 million), and Dams Repairs & Overtopping
Study ($760 million). Providing resiliency funding for water systems to interconnect
to neighboring water systems provides communities with a backup option should a
water system go offline for an extended period of time. Bolstering stormwater and
dam resilience will curb against future catastrophic flooding. Before Hurricane
Helene there was already a high need for repair and upgrades to dams and
stormwater systems across the region.
Dams, Dikes, Levees:
Ensuring the structural integrity of dams, dikes, and levees is
critical to reducing the risk of life, property loss, and surface and groundwater
contamination that could result from dam breaches and failures. DEQ has 119
permitted sites across 67 companies that are within the 27 counties in the major
disaster declaration. At present, damage estimates as a result of Hurricane Helene
are unavailable; however, anecdotal reports have come in, including reports of 10
dams overtopping. For example, a private engineering company assessed that the
100-year-old Lake Lure Dam performed as intended, was not compromised, and
remains serviceable; however, the dam was damaged and its access road was washed
out in several sections. Preliminary field investigations and designs to replace the
dam are underway, but the impact of the catastrophic flooding to surrounding access
roads requires a significant acceleration of the replacement timeline. This example is
indicative of the types of damage expected across the region. Preliminary estimates
from DEQ are 75 dams will need to be removed, 13 can be repaired, and
assessments are still being made on how many will require replacement. Needs will
continue to be evaluated in the coming months when and if further data becomes
available.
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Additional Information:
Of 100 counties in the state, 39 are eligible for FEMA Individual Assistance (IA). Those
counties:
Make up 45% of North Carolina’s total GDP;
Host 115,237 separate employer business establishments, 46% of which have five or
fewer employees;15
Are home to an additional 384,000 “mom and pop” businesses with no employees
and $18.7 billion in receipts;
Had an average unemployment rate of 3.3% in 2023, lower than the state average of
3.5%. For the most recent month of unemployment data, August 2024,
unemployment in this region was 4.0%, lower than the North Carolina rate of 4.3%;
Are home to unique businesses that play major roles in supplying products for
specific industries, including Baxter International in McDowell County, an IV fluid
manufacturer whose North Carolina plant supplies 60% of IV fluids nationwide, 16
and quartz mining operations in Spruce Pine, which supply most of the world’s
high-purity quartz for semiconductors and other technologies worldwide.
Following Hurricane Helene, some businesses have begun to clean up and reopen following
initial disruptions, but face obstacles to complete recovery, particularly in the hardest-hit
counties.
Although regional unemployment data lags the effects of major disaster events,
initial unemployment claims in North Carolina in the week after Hurricane Helene
spiked to more than three times the average in 2024 thus far. 18
As of October 20, FEMA provided almost 90,000 households with housing and
other assistance related to the effects of Hurricane Helene, totaling approximately
$120 million in support. FEMA assistance to families helps sustain local consumer
spending, which helps businesses that remain open but are experiencing lower sales
from out-of-town visitors.
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